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Published analyses
Public-facing reports, papers, and briefs.
Report · Analytical paper · July 2026
Ideological convergence and hybrid radicalisation in contemporary violent extremism
Contemporary violent extremism is becoming harder to interpret through ideology alone. Individuals and online
communities increasingly move across extremist, conspiratorial, and violence-centred environments, selectively
adopting narratives, symbols, aesthetics, and tactics from otherwise distinct ideological traditions. This does
not mean ideology is disappearing, but it weakens the assumption that ideological coherence must precede violent
mobilisation.
This report examines this development as ideological convergence across four observable dimensions: narrative,
symbolic, tactical, and strategic. It analyses how digital communication ecosystems, weakened ideological
gatekeeping, attention dynamics, and decentralised extremist structures facilitate cross-ecosystem borrowing
and hybrid radicalisation pathways. The Nordic online community HARAKAT SAMI JAHANNAM is examined as a case
study of composite extremist identity construction combining Nordic, radical islamist, neo-Nazi,
accelerationist, occult, and violence-centred elements.
For counter-terrorism practitioners, the central implication is to reduce dependence on ideological coherence
as a proxy for threat. Greater analytical weight should be placed on behavioural mobilisation, digital
trajectory, network exposure, intent, capability, and progression towards violence.
Beyond reach: platform and infrastructure dependencies in Nordic counterterrorism and counterintelligence
Nordic counterterrorism and counterintelligence agencies operate in a digital environment increasingly shaped
by actors outside their legal jurisdiction. This report examines two distinct but interconnected vulnerabilities
affecting investigative and institutional resilience. The first concerns access to digital evidence.
Radicalisation, recruitment, and foreign intelligence activity now occur largely on commercial platforms
headquartered outside Europe, making timely access to investigative data uncertain and often slow. The second
concerns reliance on foreign-controlled digital infrastructure used by public institutions, particularly cloud
services and communications platforms operated by U.S.-based providers.
Using the Nordic region as a case study, the report analyses how these dependencies interact with highly
digitalised societies, limited investigative resources, and fragmented legal frameworks governing cross-border
evidence access. While current debates on technological sovereignty increasingly address infrastructure
dependence, the investigative challenges posed by platform-controlled digital environments remain less resolved.
The report concludes with policy recommendations aimed at strengthening Nordic cooperation, improving digital
investigative capabilities, and addressing the gap between evolving digital threats and existing institutional
responses.
Report · Analytical paper · December 2025 · 2 language editions
The vulnerability of high-trust societies: the case of Finland’s comprehensive security model
Europe’s security environment is increasingly shaped by sustained low-threshold pressure that exploits societal,
informational, and institutional vulnerabilities rather than military force alone. Using Finland as a leading case,
this analysis shows how declining institutional trust is emerging as a concrete security risk within high-trust Nordic
systems built on voluntary compliance and coordination. Erosion in trust amplifies the impact of hybrid activity,
persistent ambiguity, and low-cost asymmetric tactics, such as drone incursions near critical infrastructure, by
slowing alignment, increasing coordination costs, and widening space for hostile narratives. The core finding is
clear: in a contested security environment, institutional trust functions as a strategic enabler comparable to
critical infrastructure, and its gradual erosion narrows margins for decisive action. Sustaining psychological
resilience and legitimacy is therefore not a societal concern but a security imperative for Nordic states operating
under continuous pressure.
Reviewing selected UAS incidents, mapping how drones have been used to test or breach perimeters,
observe security postures, and create new attack options against critical infrastructure and public
spaces, and outlining implications for early warning and response.
Additional thematic papers and short analytical notes will be listed here once they are finalised
for open release. Most NSA outputs are prepared for restricted partner audiences and are shared
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